the triade of solution to the war in Lybia

Lybia is currently presented with three viable ways of getting out of the civil unrest and undeclared but obvious civil war:

The first would be to simply get an informal agreement with a secret clause between the 5 permanent members of the Security Council to simply let the protests take their course without international interference in the political or military levels. This would seriously compromise the safety of the Lybians and is not credible that would last more than a few weeks, if that..

The second would be to promote a humanitarian military intervention, as defended by former UK Embassador to Lybia, in which there would either be a UN peace enforcement operation, or the US would get a mandate from the Security Council in the name of NATO (which would need to enlarge its area of operation, review its strategic chart again..). Clearly this would totally undermine the arab countries will to emancipate and take over this issue as their own. So, considering that Egipt and Tunisia were 100% arab revolutions (theres no evidence to deny it yet), the West would be more than willing to accept an arab solution, even because Russia might be pushing the no fly zone to high up into the US real desire to agree to that: This could stop Gaddafi alledged air strikes on his people but would stop defecting pilots from keeping the conflict regional, by including third countries, namely European Union members, that have a security interest in the area.

The third option, or the west withdrawl for the arab league to take over, could empower the Muslim brotherhood in Egipt to come to the rescue of the Lybians through humanitarian aid, as they have done in the past internally, mostly in Egipt, against natural calamities and military campaigns. It is not probable that the military in Lybia should take over in the case where Gadaffi and his prol retreat. Military has no structure in Lybia, its more like a bunch of militias that if insured power would likely just withold the democratic transition, if nothing else.

Most leaders of opposition who defected and are in exile, are most likely too involved with the ruling clan and will have difficulties convincing anysupporters to their side.

The congress of members, whom Gadaffi leaded in 69 to overthrow the king, have been in Gaddafi s payroll ever since. Thise are supposed to represent different clans and tribe leaders.

Right now China, Korea and other authoritarian regimes, who have a heavy energy dependence and many have recent commercial and trade agreements with northern African regimes, seem to be panicking, afraid that the arabian wave of protests, may come to their shores soon, especially North Korea who s getting ready for a dinasty like power transition, much like in the magrebian tradition. Its unlikely that China will pass a UN intervention in the Security Council. The European Union is unlikely to take the lead on any diplomatic initiatives, since the UK and particularly Italy and France have long stood as Gaddafi’s allies and declared friends since 2003, namely Berlusconi. The US also recognises the need for a non direct involvement, especially after Iraq and the dark days ahead in terms of the alienation of electoral support to endeavour another intervention abroad with a tight budget problem and a moral deficit and nationwide crisis.

Gaddafi is theatrical and will probably count on many friends to avoid being brought in to the International Penal Court in Hague. He will have many sanctuaries to chose from, namely Saudi Arabia, or Venezuela, where he can remain in relative seclusion for a few years until issued a diplomatic Passport and roam free within certain circles.

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